Skip to main content

Need to make decison towards your relationship? How about a decison tree analysis ?

Supposed you are in a long-distance relationship for some years, of course you want to be with your partner in a same city, but both of you have job in different cities, your partner shows reluctance to move to your city. What will you do? Sacrifice your job to move to another city? Is it worthy to do so? Then you need do a decision tree analysis!

If you move to another city, you need to quit your old job and find a new one, probably you can’t find a new job immediately, there may be a period that you have no income. Let’s assume you need a year to find a new job. Then the costs of moving will be the benefits of your original annual income. For your relationship, you know if you move to your partner’s city, there will be high chance of probability that both you will get married. If you don’t move, there will only be low chance of probability that you will get married. If you get married, your tax level will be lower, you share the rent and perhaps your annual income will be higher, which assume will increase 50% of annual income benefit. But there still a chance that you will not get married and you will have a very hard time due to break up. You can’t sleep well, you can’t eat well and you can’t work well, which may take you at least half a year to recover. Let’s assume the costs of break up will be the income of your half year salary. Here is the illustration of the decision tree analysis process.

Then calculation the utilities of the two decision scenarios will be :

If you move,

If you don’t move,

For example:

Then calculation results will be :

For this case, it is recommended not to move for a higher value of utility. But the results will be varied with different case background, which is highly depend on the faith or belief of you towards the relationship as well as the consequences of your decision choice.  And the assigned probability may depend on a lot factors, such as emotional factor, cultural factor, time factor, distance factor and so on. You can add these factors into account for your own model:)


Popular posts from this blog

Lessons that I learned from my first PhD poster presentation

Last month, I attended  the PhD day in BAM together with other three ESRs (Xin Wang,Joyraj Chakraborty,Imane Bayane). I presented my poster here based on my paper "Damage detection and deteriorating structural systems". I got some comments and feedback that I would like to share with all of you in this post. Preparing your welcoming sentenceAt first, I just stood besides my poster and I was thinking people may ask me if they have any questions. But the truth is if you don't speak, viewers will quickly pass through your poster and move to the next stand. So it is better to take the initiative to talk to others. It may be little embarrassing for you at the beginning, but you have to be brave to sell yourself and your ideas. 
If you prepare a good welcoming sentence, things will become much easier. Since my poster is about quantification the damage detection value of a bridge to help make better decision, so I opened my speech with the sentence like: Do you want t…

Get to know me in three minutes

Thanks to my dearest and nicest colleague Andreas Kelling to make this professional video for me. I like it so much! Thanks million times :) )) Meanwhile, an article described our project is published on BAM's home webpage. You can read through Research trainees on the trail of concrete fatigue . Thanks a lot to my lovely colleague Rebekka Gabler for the interview and the article:D
Hope all you have fun watching the video as well as reading the article!

Summary of my first year PhD life

It has been one year already since I started my PhD, time flies! I still remembered  the first day when  I moved to Berlin. It is just like yesterday, OMG.

12/2016 I started to work in Federal institute of material research and testing (BAM), Berlin, Germany. My supervisor gave me the first task.
1/2017 I wrote my state of art for my PhD topic under the framework of INFRASTAR project.
2/2017 I submitted an abstract for IWSHM2017 based on the task  given by my supervisor.
3/2017 INFRASTAR first training week was held in Berlin, it was the first time to meet 12 ESRs.  INFRASTAR first training week in Berlin, BAM
4/2017 I moved to Aalborg and started my secondment in Aalborg university and worked on my paper.
Secondment in Aalborg University

5/2017  With the help of teams of John in Aalborg university, I wrote the full manuscript here for IWSHM2017.

6/2017 I was back to Berlin and attended outreach activity PhD retreat in warren which was organized by BAM PhD organization. And I submitt…